Sunshine's 2023 Oscar Predictions

2023 Oscars Predictions

The awards cycle ends this weekend with the 95th Academy Awards, airing on Sunday at 8:00 pm on ABC. Whether you fill out a ballot or not, here are my predictions on who I think will be taking home the Oscar. 

Best Sound

Who I Want to Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Who I Think Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Out of the movies nominated for this category, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ was certainly my favorite but ultimately I don’t have a strong opinion on who takes home this award. This really is a toss-up. The sound category for the last 10 years has gone to movies about war, music, and fast vehicles and all of the nominees fall into that category but the engineers on Top Gun Maverick have pulled in several awards already and so maybe there is one more to go.

Best Costume Design

Who I Want to Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Who I Think Will Win: Elvis

Ruth Carter won for Black Panther and just the sheer amount of Costumes along with the attention to cultural details makes her my clear choice for this category. However, the academy still skews white, older, and male and for that reason I see them going with a different choice. ‘Wakanda Forever’ has won more costuming awards this year but Elvis isn’t far behind as the category seems to be split between the two options, but The Academy loves its musical biopics and due to the iconic nature of the subject matter, I feel voters will lean in this direction…unfortunately. 

Best Cinematography

Who I Want to Win: Tár

Who I Think Will Win: Tár

It is absolutely mind-blowing to me that Top Gun: Maverick wasn’t nominated for this category as it’s picked up more Cinematography awards this season than any other movie but out of the 5 films nominated, Florian Hoffmeister’s photography has been my favorite. Not only is this my personal choice, but out of the nominees Hoffmeister has taken home the most wins in this category this award season and is the likely favorite. 

Best Production Design

Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Who I Think Will Win: Babylon

I think the setting of AQOTWF is a major reason why that film works so well but The Academy loves its movies about movies and though The Fabelmans is also nominated, Babylon seems to be taking this category the most this award season. 

Best Short Film, Animated

Who I Want to Win: Ice Merchants

Who I Think Will Win: Ice Merchants

Not only is ‘Ice Merchants’ a stunning viewing experience but it’s the most decorated out of the other nominees in this absolutely stacked category. All of the animated short films are worth watching but I place my bet on this story from João Gonzalez. 

Best Visual Effects

Who I Want to Win: Avatar The Way of Water

Who I Think Will Win: Avatar The Way of Water

This one feels like a no-brainer but you can never say anything is for sure when it comes to The Academy Awards. Everyone thought Saving Private Ryan was a shoe-in for Best Picture and then here comes Shakespear In Love, remember? But Avatar The Way of Water has been cleaning up the visual technicals all season long and it’s the most likely choice. 

Best Film Editing

Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who I Think Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Withouth the precision in editing, EEAAO doesn’t work nearly as well and the ability to move through so many multiverses with such ease without becoming a visual mess is no easy feat. There is a chance that Elvis maybe pulls the win but I think it’s a small one. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Who I Think Will Win: Elvis

It’s annoying that majority of the nominees for this category are getting recognition for putting chisled actors into fat suits. All Quiet on the Western Front not only avoids that trope but uses makeup to truly elevate the film while complimenting the overarching themes of the movie itself. That being said, Elvis has one several hair and makeup awards already and is the frontrunner going into Sunday. 

Best International Feature Film

Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on The Western Front

Who I Think Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

This category was the biggest gap for me going into this weekend’s ceremony but there is a pretty good rule of thumb that applies here. If a movie is up for Best Picture and Best International Feature, it will win Best International Feature. 

Best Short Film, Live Action

Who I Want to Win: An Irish Goodbye

Who I Think Will Win: An Irish Goodbye

Almost guaranteed to make you laugh and cry at the same time, ‘An Irish Goodbye’ has all the things that make oscar voters cheer. That, and it’s won more awards that all the other nominees combined. 

Best Documentary, Short

Who I Want to Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Who I Think Will Win: Haulout

If you haven’t had a chance to watch either of these movies, you should certainly make time for them. Haulout feels more important as it shows us a strong visual representation of the effects of climate change and for that reason I feel like the voters will lean more in its direction. 

Best Documentary, Feature

Who I Want to Win: Fire of Love

Who I Think Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Up until this point, both of these documentaries have won the same amount of awards and are neck-and-neck in ratings across multiple publications. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed seems to have a little more weight and relevance at this time and my hunch is that it wins on Sunday, but it truly is a coin toss. 

Best Original Score

Who I Want to Win: The Fabelmans 

Who I Think Will Win: Babylon

The real answer as to who I want to win this category would actually be Michael Giaccino’s score for ‘The Batman’ and I am absolutely befuddled that it didn’t even pull the nomination but here we are. Though I could see Jon Williams taking another Oscar home for The Fabelmans, there have been more indicators pointing towards Justin Hurwitz for Babylon. 

Best Original Song

Who I Want to Win: “Naatu Naatu”

Who I Think Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”

Many were not happy when RRR wasn’t even considered for Best International Feature, so I see this as a way of the academy giving this movie something to go home with. Not to mention that the song is fantastic and fun. 

Best Animated Feature

Who I Want to Win: Puss In Boot: The Last Wish

Who I Think Will Win: Pinnochio

The Last Wish may very well be the best movie in the Shrek franchise, but how does one compete with the gorgeous stop-motion animation given to us in Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio? The answer is “You Don’t” as this latest re-telling has won this exact category over 35 times this season. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who I Want to Win: Women Talking

Who I Think Will Win: Women Talking

Women were shut out of many of the major categories this year and with this being one of the only opportunities to celebrate Sarah Polley, I think it’s likely that it happens. 

Best Original Screenplay

Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who I Think Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Banshees was my 2nd favorite movie of the year and unfortunately, I think it will end up as the number 2 in many of the categories on Sunday, with the exception of this category which may be used as a consolation prize. With that in mind, it’s not out of the running yet for some of the other major awards. 

Best Supporting Actor

Who I Want to Win: Ke Huy Quan

Who I Think Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

If Ke Huy Quan doesn’t win this award, we riot. 

Best Supporting Actress

Who I Want to Win: Stephanie Hsu

Who I Think Will Win: Angela Bassett

Angela Bassett was the front runner for the longest time but over the last couple of weeks we have seen a few others take home the crown in this category. I ultimately think that Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu split the votes for fans of EEAAO and Angela Bassett does the thing and takes home the award. 

Best Actor

Who I Want to Win: Colin Farrell 

Who I Think Will Win: Brendan Fraser

Brendan has been taking home a lot of the trophies for this category and though the world seems to also love Austin Butler, I feel the academy will want to see more from him before casting their votes for him. 

Best Actress

Who I Want to Win: Michelle Yeoh 

Who I Think Will Win: Michell Yeoh

If you would have asked me this question two weeks ago, I would have told you that Cate Blanchett takes this award, but momentum seems to be swinging towards the star of Everything Everywhere All At Once. Not only would that win make history but it’s also well deserved. 

Best Director

Who I Want to Win: Daniels

Who I Think Will Win: Daniels

It is not a given that the Director(s) of the Best Picture also win’s Best Director however it has happened 3 times in the last 5 years and as much as I don’t think The Academy ever though they would give the award to same folks who made a farting corpse movie, I think it happens here. 

Best Picture

Who I Want to Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Who I Think Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Everything Everywhere All At Once had a huge impact on moviegoers over the last year and for a movie to come out in April to have stayed relevant is an achievement all its own, but there is something truly special about this feature, so much so that it has won 336 awards so far. If it doesn’t win, it will be a huge disappointment.